Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
